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Friday, November 19, 2004
Identity Theft
The Wolves are 4-3 to start the season. No, most observers are not hitting the panic button, nor should they. But questions are being asked. Things appear different this season... don't they?
Maybe, but maybe not. Recall that the Wolves hovered around .500 until mid-December last season. Remember also that the Wolves are incorporating two players with all-star level talent into their lineup and still trying to figure out how to use not one, not two, but three players off the bench who signed large contracts as coveted free agents -- and another in former lottery pick Eddie Griffin who is clearly trying to find a role on the team. Finally, keep in mind the subject of an earlier column - the Wolves, despite having fewer games than most in the early going, have had to travel for road back-to-backs twice this season, once to the altitude in Denver and a second time to the World Champs. Not coincidental then that they had halftime leads in both games and ran out of gas late.
With all that being said, it is a fair criticism to say that this particular version of the Wolves has started this season with a different gait than last year's top seed. As with most NBA teams, and despite the presence of the league's MVP, this team swaggers when its point guard swaggers. This team rolls to the rhythm of its backcourt general.
So, can it be coincidental that as Sam Cassell goes (and has gone), so goes the Wolves? We've all seen the stats -- Cassell is shooting 14 percent higher and scoring 10 points a game higher in Wolves wins this season than losses. But what I contend is not that its simply a matter of Cassell being in a rut -- the current situation is one that may not permit him to work his way out of it.
From 1999, Sam Cassell has been a formidable point guard in this league. Yes, his legacy goes back to his first two years in the league and the championships that go with them, but the past five years have solidified his role as floor leader of teams. Since he has so established himself, he has averaged 35 minutes a night every season. The output? Never less than eighteen points a game, all the while at one of the best shooting percentages ever seen at the point guard position.
This year? It's down to 30 minutes a game. It doesn't sound like much, admittedly, but it has been the rare start to a fourth quarter where the observer is able to remark upon Cassell's having put his imprint on the game to that point. And now for the worst part... it all seems to be having an effect on his replacement as well.
What, you say? Troy Hudson is averaging 9.4 points a game in only 18 minutes per -- a per minute average well above that established in his young career. Yes, my friends, but the cost of squeezing Troy Hudson's minutes is the paint on the iron. Hudson is shooting only 38%, contrasted with 43% from two years ago when he was the floor general. Now Troy comes in and yes he has hit some big shots, but he is clearly in a rush to throw them up, hit or miss. Not only that, but his defensive intensity and even his willingness to contribute to boxing out the opposition has suffered. Think about this -- in 2002-03, Hudson averaged 2.3 rebounds per game in 32 minutes. This season? Troy has played 124 minutes and has one rebound... on the season.
So, what it boils down to is that the point guard position has not been a scoring position when Cassell is in there because he has not "gotten lathered up," as Michael Jordan used to call it, on a regular basis. Conversely, when T-Hud is in the game it's bombs away. Wouldn't you almost rather have it the other way around, with the starting point guard comfortable shooting and the backup doing the "little things?"
This is one of those columns that comes without an answer. Both of these men are very, very wealthy men. There is no ten-day contract to discuss, no impending trade, no possibility of either doing anything but getting out there and adapting. Last year when Cassell got hurt, there was no Hudson and the Wolves lost to the Lakers. The Timberwolves will not have that happen again, especially with this relatively short window on a championship. While those facts mean it is a problem most teams would love to have, it is nonetheless something of a problem.
So next time you are watching a Wolves game, root for a lot of early shots for Sam Cassell. If you haven't noticed, Garnett does not need to be involved early to be effective late. The same does not appear to be true of Sam. As for Hudson, if he comes in while nursing a lead, let's hope for some discretion at the point -- this team is not short on offensive options and shooting from 25 feet with the shot clock at 18 is not a long term strategy for success. Alternatively, if the Wolves are trailing, I guess we can all accept the risk that Hudson hits his outside shots because we all know the effect a hot Troy can have on a game. Besides, if he's missing them it might just mean more minutes for Sam. At least we hope.
The Wolves are 4-3 to start the season. No, most observers are not hitting the panic button, nor should they. But questions are being asked. Things appear different this season... don't they?
Maybe, but maybe not. Recall that the Wolves hovered around .500 until mid-December last season. Remember also that the Wolves are incorporating two players with all-star level talent into their lineup and still trying to figure out how to use not one, not two, but three players off the bench who signed large contracts as coveted free agents -- and another in former lottery pick Eddie Griffin who is clearly trying to find a role on the team. Finally, keep in mind the subject of an earlier column - the Wolves, despite having fewer games than most in the early going, have had to travel for road back-to-backs twice this season, once to the altitude in Denver and a second time to the World Champs. Not coincidental then that they had halftime leads in both games and ran out of gas late.
With all that being said, it is a fair criticism to say that this particular version of the Wolves has started this season with a different gait than last year's top seed. As with most NBA teams, and despite the presence of the league's MVP, this team swaggers when its point guard swaggers. This team rolls to the rhythm of its backcourt general.
So, can it be coincidental that as Sam Cassell goes (and has gone), so goes the Wolves? We've all seen the stats -- Cassell is shooting 14 percent higher and scoring 10 points a game higher in Wolves wins this season than losses. But what I contend is not that its simply a matter of Cassell being in a rut -- the current situation is one that may not permit him to work his way out of it.
From 1999, Sam Cassell has been a formidable point guard in this league. Yes, his legacy goes back to his first two years in the league and the championships that go with them, but the past five years have solidified his role as floor leader of teams. Since he has so established himself, he has averaged 35 minutes a night every season. The output? Never less than eighteen points a game, all the while at one of the best shooting percentages ever seen at the point guard position.
This year? It's down to 30 minutes a game. It doesn't sound like much, admittedly, but it has been the rare start to a fourth quarter where the observer is able to remark upon Cassell's having put his imprint on the game to that point. And now for the worst part... it all seems to be having an effect on his replacement as well.
What, you say? Troy Hudson is averaging 9.4 points a game in only 18 minutes per -- a per minute average well above that established in his young career. Yes, my friends, but the cost of squeezing Troy Hudson's minutes is the paint on the iron. Hudson is shooting only 38%, contrasted with 43% from two years ago when he was the floor general. Now Troy comes in and yes he has hit some big shots, but he is clearly in a rush to throw them up, hit or miss. Not only that, but his defensive intensity and even his willingness to contribute to boxing out the opposition has suffered. Think about this -- in 2002-03, Hudson averaged 2.3 rebounds per game in 32 minutes. This season? Troy has played 124 minutes and has one rebound... on the season.
So, what it boils down to is that the point guard position has not been a scoring position when Cassell is in there because he has not "gotten lathered up," as Michael Jordan used to call it, on a regular basis. Conversely, when T-Hud is in the game it's bombs away. Wouldn't you almost rather have it the other way around, with the starting point guard comfortable shooting and the backup doing the "little things?"
This is one of those columns that comes without an answer. Both of these men are very, very wealthy men. There is no ten-day contract to discuss, no impending trade, no possibility of either doing anything but getting out there and adapting. Last year when Cassell got hurt, there was no Hudson and the Wolves lost to the Lakers. The Timberwolves will not have that happen again, especially with this relatively short window on a championship. While those facts mean it is a problem most teams would love to have, it is nonetheless something of a problem.
So next time you are watching a Wolves game, root for a lot of early shots for Sam Cassell. If you haven't noticed, Garnett does not need to be involved early to be effective late. The same does not appear to be true of Sam. As for Hudson, if he comes in while nursing a lead, let's hope for some discretion at the point -- this team is not short on offensive options and shooting from 25 feet with the shot clock at 18 is not a long term strategy for success. Alternatively, if the Wolves are trailing, I guess we can all accept the risk that Hudson hits his outside shots because we all know the effect a hot Troy can have on a game. Besides, if he's missing them it might just mean more minutes for Sam. At least we hope.
Tuesday, November 16, 2004
Okay, I know last week I teased a column where I give the definitive answer: Wally or Trenton?
The truth is, that column simply isn’t ready yet. Not because yours truly is lazy or unprepared, but because the verdict is still out. In the first five games, not only has Flip given both significant minutes, he’s often had them on the floor together. The Wolves have also sought the right mix of point guard and shooting guard to complement the rest of what has become the deepest squad in the NBA.So, with that in mind, and also bearing in mind that a five game sample size is probably not good enough statistically, we put the analysis off. When we do look at it, we will ask not only Wally v. Trenton, but also incorporate Sam, T-Hud, Spree, and maybe even Fred Hoiberg into the analysis. For Flip Saunders, a coach who is famous in NBA circles for playing his favorite eight, at most nine players, this may be his toughest and hopefully most rewarding challenge.
Oh, and there’s another reason. Tonight Ron Jeremy, erm… Stan Van Gundy brings his response to the Red Sox’ Merry Band of Idiots to the Target Center. With Shaq Diesel at the helm, the Heat have started quick. O’Neal’s presence has made every other member of the team, save perhaps Eddie Jones, more productive. Their “loosey-goosey,” for lack of a more apt phrase, approach has made them a very difficult challenge to gameplan against.Making it worse, at least on this night, is that there are only two types of players in the NBA who really give the Wolves nightmares.
The first is dominant centers. Now that might seem a bit silly – after all, don’t dominant centers bother everyone? They do, but since the departure of Nesterovic, the likes of Shaq, Brad Miller, Tim Duncan (now firmly a center), and even Rasho himself have looked confident and imposing against the Wolves’ frontline. A rejuvenated Michael Olowokandi provides some of what is needed, but, frankly, the only rejuvenation I have seen this fall is on the offensive end of the floor. He still arrives too late from screens and his tendency to jump into the player instead of vertical gets him into foul trouble. Big Erv can hang for awhile, but he is clearly uncomfortable extending the defense outside of five or six feet. Further, with Shaq, Erv is not alone in that he simply cannot withstand the physical pressure – the difference in mere girth is telling over the course of four quarters.
Last year in the playoffs, the Timberwolves had more success with Shaq at home than on the road. In fact, without hard numbers to back me up, I feel as though that has been the case throughout the Daddy’s reign in Tinseltown. I wonder if last year, at least, it had to do with the amount of energy the Wolves brought to the home court – especially in the case of players like Mark Madsen and Gary Trent, both of whom clearly feed off of energy in big moments. It’s yet to be seen whether Eddie Griffin, clearly not a center, can provide the same in spurts when called upon to deal with the Diesel. Not to mention that, with this Heat team, Udonis Haslem has become the power forward Shaq never had in L.A. Double on Shaq and you’ve just created the multiple double-doubles and blistering 60% shooting percentage that Haslem has seen in the early season.
Putting the frontline behind us, the real key to this game may be whether Dwyane Wade is available for tonight’s tilt. Wade has missed two straight with a high ankle strain and the Heat training staff has made it clear that they are going to keep this young phenom out of action until it is fully healed. Apparently there was no consecutive games streak to worry about.Without Wade the Heat backcourt is pedestrian at best. But let’s just assume, for a moment, that he is going to play. Dwyane Wade poses the other thing that bothers the Wolves – big scoring guards. Historically it was shooting guar - recall uninspiring individuals like Jerry Stackhouse and Rip Hamilton scoring against the Wolves in the past? But now, in the Trenton Hassell era, many of those types are neutralized. Now it’s large point guards, from Billups to Andre Miller to this very same Dwyane Wade who put up 19 and five dimes (albeit on only 8 of 21 from the floor) on the Wolves in only his sixth game as a professional.
Well, now Wade is a second year player and perhaps the “IT player” of the young season. Before his injury he was averaging 26 points, 7.4 assists, 6.2 rebounds, and over two steals a game, shooting a remarkable 52% from the field while leading the Heat to a 4-1 start in a weak Southeast Division. He must be salivating at the prospect of facing Cassell and Hudson, guards who he can either post up or abuse with his first step. His ankle may prevent such quickness and Hassell or Sprewell will likely be able to leave the slumping Eddie Jones or one-dimensional Rasual Butler to help, but the matchup simply does not favor the home team.So get out tonight and go watch one of the exciting matchups in the young NBA season.
The Heat and Shaq come but once a year, but, if healthy, expect the play Wade to be what impresses you from the visitors. For the Wolves, it’s time for class to rise to the top. K.G. and Sprewell will have mismatches to work against and, while Wade is a lockdown defender, the Wolves are as good as anyone at setting up pick and roll scenarios to get Cassell his looks.On the other end of the floor, it’s matchups like this that make me proud of the ingenuity of Flip and the Wolves. Rasual Butler can hit the three, but in using Flip’s breakthrough zone defense, the Wolves will dare Jones, Wade (or Damon Jones in his stead) and the rest of the Heat guards to shoot the long ball. If they can’t, and they haven’t yet, suddenly Shaq is wearing Wolves’ defenders and the home team gets to run off of long rebounds. Now that’s worth the price of admission and it will deliver the Wolves the 96-88 win.
The truth is, that column simply isn’t ready yet. Not because yours truly is lazy or unprepared, but because the verdict is still out. In the first five games, not only has Flip given both significant minutes, he’s often had them on the floor together. The Wolves have also sought the right mix of point guard and shooting guard to complement the rest of what has become the deepest squad in the NBA.So, with that in mind, and also bearing in mind that a five game sample size is probably not good enough statistically, we put the analysis off. When we do look at it, we will ask not only Wally v. Trenton, but also incorporate Sam, T-Hud, Spree, and maybe even Fred Hoiberg into the analysis. For Flip Saunders, a coach who is famous in NBA circles for playing his favorite eight, at most nine players, this may be his toughest and hopefully most rewarding challenge.
Oh, and there’s another reason. Tonight Ron Jeremy, erm… Stan Van Gundy brings his response to the Red Sox’ Merry Band of Idiots to the Target Center. With Shaq Diesel at the helm, the Heat have started quick. O’Neal’s presence has made every other member of the team, save perhaps Eddie Jones, more productive. Their “loosey-goosey,” for lack of a more apt phrase, approach has made them a very difficult challenge to gameplan against.Making it worse, at least on this night, is that there are only two types of players in the NBA who really give the Wolves nightmares.
The first is dominant centers. Now that might seem a bit silly – after all, don’t dominant centers bother everyone? They do, but since the departure of Nesterovic, the likes of Shaq, Brad Miller, Tim Duncan (now firmly a center), and even Rasho himself have looked confident and imposing against the Wolves’ frontline. A rejuvenated Michael Olowokandi provides some of what is needed, but, frankly, the only rejuvenation I have seen this fall is on the offensive end of the floor. He still arrives too late from screens and his tendency to jump into the player instead of vertical gets him into foul trouble. Big Erv can hang for awhile, but he is clearly uncomfortable extending the defense outside of five or six feet. Further, with Shaq, Erv is not alone in that he simply cannot withstand the physical pressure – the difference in mere girth is telling over the course of four quarters.
Last year in the playoffs, the Timberwolves had more success with Shaq at home than on the road. In fact, without hard numbers to back me up, I feel as though that has been the case throughout the Daddy’s reign in Tinseltown. I wonder if last year, at least, it had to do with the amount of energy the Wolves brought to the home court – especially in the case of players like Mark Madsen and Gary Trent, both of whom clearly feed off of energy in big moments. It’s yet to be seen whether Eddie Griffin, clearly not a center, can provide the same in spurts when called upon to deal with the Diesel. Not to mention that, with this Heat team, Udonis Haslem has become the power forward Shaq never had in L.A. Double on Shaq and you’ve just created the multiple double-doubles and blistering 60% shooting percentage that Haslem has seen in the early season.
Putting the frontline behind us, the real key to this game may be whether Dwyane Wade is available for tonight’s tilt. Wade has missed two straight with a high ankle strain and the Heat training staff has made it clear that they are going to keep this young phenom out of action until it is fully healed. Apparently there was no consecutive games streak to worry about.Without Wade the Heat backcourt is pedestrian at best. But let’s just assume, for a moment, that he is going to play. Dwyane Wade poses the other thing that bothers the Wolves – big scoring guards. Historically it was shooting guar - recall uninspiring individuals like Jerry Stackhouse and Rip Hamilton scoring against the Wolves in the past? But now, in the Trenton Hassell era, many of those types are neutralized. Now it’s large point guards, from Billups to Andre Miller to this very same Dwyane Wade who put up 19 and five dimes (albeit on only 8 of 21 from the floor) on the Wolves in only his sixth game as a professional.
Well, now Wade is a second year player and perhaps the “IT player” of the young season. Before his injury he was averaging 26 points, 7.4 assists, 6.2 rebounds, and over two steals a game, shooting a remarkable 52% from the field while leading the Heat to a 4-1 start in a weak Southeast Division. He must be salivating at the prospect of facing Cassell and Hudson, guards who he can either post up or abuse with his first step. His ankle may prevent such quickness and Hassell or Sprewell will likely be able to leave the slumping Eddie Jones or one-dimensional Rasual Butler to help, but the matchup simply does not favor the home team.So get out tonight and go watch one of the exciting matchups in the young NBA season.
The Heat and Shaq come but once a year, but, if healthy, expect the play Wade to be what impresses you from the visitors. For the Wolves, it’s time for class to rise to the top. K.G. and Sprewell will have mismatches to work against and, while Wade is a lockdown defender, the Wolves are as good as anyone at setting up pick and roll scenarios to get Cassell his looks.On the other end of the floor, it’s matchups like this that make me proud of the ingenuity of Flip and the Wolves. Rasual Butler can hit the three, but in using Flip’s breakthrough zone defense, the Wolves will dare Jones, Wade (or Damon Jones in his stead) and the rest of the Heat guards to shoot the long ball. If they can’t, and they haven’t yet, suddenly Shaq is wearing Wolves’ defenders and the home team gets to run off of long rebounds. Now that’s worth the price of admission and it will deliver the Wolves the 96-88 win.
Friday, November 12, 2004
For those of you who have been burdened with the task of reading my columns for the past year and half – or at least when you could find one, you often hear me refer to the danger of the “back to back.” What I’m referring to are those occasions on an NBA schedule when a team has to play two games in two nights. Far from scheduling anomalies, they are expected within the rigors of an NBA season and each team knows that they are coming, anticipating them with all the excitement of a kick in the stomach.
What the WolvesGeek reader may not know is that all NBA back to backs are most certainly not alike. Unfortunately, nowhere does this hold more true than in the Timberwolves’ new home, the Northwest Division.
Let’s start our discussion by looking at the teams with the largest home v. road record disparity last season:
Dallas 36-5(home) 16-25(road) +20
Golden St. 27-14 10-31 +17
Denver 29-12 14-27 +15
Utah 28-13 14-27 +14
What might first strike someone who looks at that list is that all four teams are in the Western Conference. Actually, what strikes me first is how good the Warriors were in the Bay Area. But, for the moment, let’s take a closer look at the two teams on that list who share the Northwest Division with the Timberwolves, Denver and Utah.
You see, Denver and Utah are the two teams in the NBA who play at what would typically described as extreme elevations. Denver plays at over 5000 feet, the Delta Center is at 4330 feet, and (don’t quote me on this) I believe the next highest arena is America West in Phoenix at somewhere under 2000.
SO, can you now envision that burning feeling in your lungs as you try and run for a couple of hours in either Denver or Utah? Now imagine it after you’ve arrived that same day, or more accurately the early hours of the morning – turning in the standard six to eight hours of poor hotel/midmorning sleep before shootaround.
What I’m getting at is that I’ve always imagined Denver and Utah, even in their middling years, where they were last season, were pretty good at home when hosting a team on the business end of a back to back. In setting the parameters that the team coming in must have played the night before while the home team did not, I ran the numbers from last season:
Denver 9-0
Utah 9-1
Wow. Take into account that the only loss was the final game of the season in Utah (a game that did not matter to the Jazz or visiting Suns), and those two teams, flawed in many ways, were perfect when hosting a team in the second game of an altitude-laced back to back.
Now, truth be told, it’s not as if the league is simply giving the Jazz or Nuggets nine wins a year – every team has the opportunity to be rested as it hosts teams on the second night of the most grueling scheduling situation in the NBA. But what it does mean is that, at the end of the year, you hope to avoid being the road team in those situations where you’re tired and you face altitude issues. Already this year the Wolves have been caught – less than eighteen hours after arriving in Denver off of their opening night win in Minneapolis, the Wolves were forced to take on a rested Nuggets team in Denver. They lost that game just like they did last March 24 in a similar situation, albeit this time around taking it to overtime. So, a Wolves team that was 11-7 in the second game of back-to-back’s last season got its scheduling nightmare out of the way early. And early it is – very early.
What goes around comes around in the NBA, so don’t worry about the early struggles. If you need further heartening, Denver has actually already lost a game where they were hosting a traveling team playing their second game in two nights. Then again, the team they were hosting? The team the Wolves might really worry about, the Utah Jazz.
What the WolvesGeek reader may not know is that all NBA back to backs are most certainly not alike. Unfortunately, nowhere does this hold more true than in the Timberwolves’ new home, the Northwest Division.
Let’s start our discussion by looking at the teams with the largest home v. road record disparity last season:
Dallas 36-5(home) 16-25(road) +20
Golden St. 27-14 10-31 +17
Denver 29-12 14-27 +15
Utah 28-13 14-27 +14
What might first strike someone who looks at that list is that all four teams are in the Western Conference. Actually, what strikes me first is how good the Warriors were in the Bay Area. But, for the moment, let’s take a closer look at the two teams on that list who share the Northwest Division with the Timberwolves, Denver and Utah.
You see, Denver and Utah are the two teams in the NBA who play at what would typically described as extreme elevations. Denver plays at over 5000 feet, the Delta Center is at 4330 feet, and (don’t quote me on this) I believe the next highest arena is America West in Phoenix at somewhere under 2000.
SO, can you now envision that burning feeling in your lungs as you try and run for a couple of hours in either Denver or Utah? Now imagine it after you’ve arrived that same day, or more accurately the early hours of the morning – turning in the standard six to eight hours of poor hotel/midmorning sleep before shootaround.
What I’m getting at is that I’ve always imagined Denver and Utah, even in their middling years, where they were last season, were pretty good at home when hosting a team on the business end of a back to back. In setting the parameters that the team coming in must have played the night before while the home team did not, I ran the numbers from last season:
Denver 9-0
Utah 9-1
Wow. Take into account that the only loss was the final game of the season in Utah (a game that did not matter to the Jazz or visiting Suns), and those two teams, flawed in many ways, were perfect when hosting a team in the second game of an altitude-laced back to back.
Now, truth be told, it’s not as if the league is simply giving the Jazz or Nuggets nine wins a year – every team has the opportunity to be rested as it hosts teams on the second night of the most grueling scheduling situation in the NBA. But what it does mean is that, at the end of the year, you hope to avoid being the road team in those situations where you’re tired and you face altitude issues. Already this year the Wolves have been caught – less than eighteen hours after arriving in Denver off of their opening night win in Minneapolis, the Wolves were forced to take on a rested Nuggets team in Denver. They lost that game just like they did last March 24 in a similar situation, albeit this time around taking it to overtime. So, a Wolves team that was 11-7 in the second game of back-to-back’s last season got its scheduling nightmare out of the way early. And early it is – very early.
What goes around comes around in the NBA, so don’t worry about the early struggles. If you need further heartening, Denver has actually already lost a game where they were hosting a traveling team playing their second game in two nights. Then again, the team they were hosting? The team the Wolves might really worry about, the Utah Jazz.
Thursday, November 11, 2004
BIRTH OF A RIVALRY
(first published 11/10/04 at www.twinsgeek.com)
Flash back to late July 2002…
Less than a month after the Twins humble the once-proud Cleveland Indians 23-2, Torii Hunter is angered by being hit by a Danys Baez pitch in the fifth inning of a Twins win over the same Indians. Hunter pushes past third-base coach Al Newman and catcher Einar Diaz to get the ball. Hunter then fires it directly at Baez, the ball deflecting off of Baez’s glove and hitting him on his leg.
A year later, on the fourth of July… A day after Indians starter C.C. Sabathia hit two Minnesota Twins hitters and threw inside to a third, the benches clear when Indians starter Jason Davis threw inside on, guess who, Torii Hunter. After the dust finally settles, three players and both managers are ejected. Perhaps more importantly, the Indians win the series.
In 2004, the Indians pushed the Twins until late August in a pennant chase that not only shocked many observers, but may have succeeded had Corey Koskie not rescued the Twins on August 29 in a contest that would have given the Indians a share of first place. Therefore, it is no surprise that the conventional wisdom is that the Twins greatest challenge in years coming might just be the young, hungry Indians and not the seemingly complacent White Sox, whom, a home plate collision and Mark Buehrle’s sour grapes notwithstanding, have not simply not generated the same level of rancor.
It’s Tuesday on TwinsGeek, which means, courtesy of John, that the topic of the day is not the Twins, but the Wolves. Following on from our opening discussion, I believe that the Wolves have an awful lot they can learn from both their front running neighbors and a host of proud, youthful challengers.
You see on March 21st of last year, in front of nearly 20,000 for an afternoon game in Minneapolis, the Wolves absolutely humiliated the Denver Nuggets. While the final was 98-77, the game wasn’t nearly that close. The Wolves led 86-52 midway through the final period. It was a statement game for the Wolves.
Since that time, the Nuggets have decided that it’s time for them to step up the challenge. Not only has Denver won the only two regular season meetings between the teams since that contest, but things have heated up so much on and off the court that this is now nothing less than a true NBA rivalry.
As the Timberwolves dispatched of the Nuggets in five games last April, two scenes stand out in the minds of many observers. First, there’s the fight between Kevin Garnett and Nuggets big man Francisco Elson, where Garnett allegedly punched Elson in the groin, resulting in Elson’s allegation that Garnett was “gay.” Second, few will forget Latrell Sprewell’s getting in the face of Nuggets sharpshooter Jon Barry following a Game Four win in Denver that essentially ended the Nuggets’ challenge in the series.
Well, if there’s anything that can be learned from the first full week of the NBA season, it’s that the Nuggets have taken issue with the pundits’ assumption that the new Northwest Division is the exclusive property of the team from Minnesota. Sure, Denver dropped two of the three in the first week, but this young, driven team certainly showed up on national television Thursday night, not only defeating the Timberwolves in overtime, but also doing it by taking it to the Wolves once again. In this rematch, Elson again attempted to invite Garnett into some ill-advised fisticuffs, and new and talented Nugget Kenyon Martin successfully baited Sam Cassell into a silly retaliation that cost Cassell the rest of the game and the opportunity for more of the fourth quarter magic he showed in 2004. This was a statement game for the Nuggets.
Over the next several weeks, both on this page and on wolvesgeek.com, we will have plenty of time to analyze the numbers and take a statistical look at what many believe is the deepest team in the NBA. For today, at least, I have to provide a cautionary tale to those who think the Wolves can cakewalk to a division title. The addition of Carlos Boozer has made the Utah Jazz a nearly certain playoff team, Portland’s Zach Randolph is one of the very few players in the NBA who can challenge Garnett’s tenacity on the boards, and Seattle can still light it up with Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis as they evidenced on Sunday night in a blowout win over the mighty Spurs. Each of those teams, like the Nuggets, will get the opportunity not only to challenge the Timberwolves, but also to believe that they can beat them, especially in their own house. In the end, I think it will be inconsistency that will doom each of those teams and deliver the division to the far steadier Wolves, but if the Twins and Indians are to serve as any example, and I believe they do, the Wolves’ run in their new division will require surviving a few punches in the mouth… maybe literally.
I encourage you to join me early every week on TwinsGeek and every Friday on wolvesgeek.com. Next week we’ll look at the hottest tactical decision facing Flip Saunders in this young season – Wally or Trenton? It’s a dilemma many teams would like to have.
(first published 11/10/04 at www.twinsgeek.com)
Flash back to late July 2002…
Less than a month after the Twins humble the once-proud Cleveland Indians 23-2, Torii Hunter is angered by being hit by a Danys Baez pitch in the fifth inning of a Twins win over the same Indians. Hunter pushes past third-base coach Al Newman and catcher Einar Diaz to get the ball. Hunter then fires it directly at Baez, the ball deflecting off of Baez’s glove and hitting him on his leg.
A year later, on the fourth of July… A day after Indians starter C.C. Sabathia hit two Minnesota Twins hitters and threw inside to a third, the benches clear when Indians starter Jason Davis threw inside on, guess who, Torii Hunter. After the dust finally settles, three players and both managers are ejected. Perhaps more importantly, the Indians win the series.
In 2004, the Indians pushed the Twins until late August in a pennant chase that not only shocked many observers, but may have succeeded had Corey Koskie not rescued the Twins on August 29 in a contest that would have given the Indians a share of first place. Therefore, it is no surprise that the conventional wisdom is that the Twins greatest challenge in years coming might just be the young, hungry Indians and not the seemingly complacent White Sox, whom, a home plate collision and Mark Buehrle’s sour grapes notwithstanding, have not simply not generated the same level of rancor.
It’s Tuesday on TwinsGeek, which means, courtesy of John, that the topic of the day is not the Twins, but the Wolves. Following on from our opening discussion, I believe that the Wolves have an awful lot they can learn from both their front running neighbors and a host of proud, youthful challengers.
You see on March 21st of last year, in front of nearly 20,000 for an afternoon game in Minneapolis, the Wolves absolutely humiliated the Denver Nuggets. While the final was 98-77, the game wasn’t nearly that close. The Wolves led 86-52 midway through the final period. It was a statement game for the Wolves.
Since that time, the Nuggets have decided that it’s time for them to step up the challenge. Not only has Denver won the only two regular season meetings between the teams since that contest, but things have heated up so much on and off the court that this is now nothing less than a true NBA rivalry.
As the Timberwolves dispatched of the Nuggets in five games last April, two scenes stand out in the minds of many observers. First, there’s the fight between Kevin Garnett and Nuggets big man Francisco Elson, where Garnett allegedly punched Elson in the groin, resulting in Elson’s allegation that Garnett was “gay.” Second, few will forget Latrell Sprewell’s getting in the face of Nuggets sharpshooter Jon Barry following a Game Four win in Denver that essentially ended the Nuggets’ challenge in the series.
Well, if there’s anything that can be learned from the first full week of the NBA season, it’s that the Nuggets have taken issue with the pundits’ assumption that the new Northwest Division is the exclusive property of the team from Minnesota. Sure, Denver dropped two of the three in the first week, but this young, driven team certainly showed up on national television Thursday night, not only defeating the Timberwolves in overtime, but also doing it by taking it to the Wolves once again. In this rematch, Elson again attempted to invite Garnett into some ill-advised fisticuffs, and new and talented Nugget Kenyon Martin successfully baited Sam Cassell into a silly retaliation that cost Cassell the rest of the game and the opportunity for more of the fourth quarter magic he showed in 2004. This was a statement game for the Nuggets.
Over the next several weeks, both on this page and on wolvesgeek.com, we will have plenty of time to analyze the numbers and take a statistical look at what many believe is the deepest team in the NBA. For today, at least, I have to provide a cautionary tale to those who think the Wolves can cakewalk to a division title. The addition of Carlos Boozer has made the Utah Jazz a nearly certain playoff team, Portland’s Zach Randolph is one of the very few players in the NBA who can challenge Garnett’s tenacity on the boards, and Seattle can still light it up with Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis as they evidenced on Sunday night in a blowout win over the mighty Spurs. Each of those teams, like the Nuggets, will get the opportunity not only to challenge the Timberwolves, but also to believe that they can beat them, especially in their own house. In the end, I think it will be inconsistency that will doom each of those teams and deliver the division to the far steadier Wolves, but if the Twins and Indians are to serve as any example, and I believe they do, the Wolves’ run in their new division will require surviving a few punches in the mouth… maybe literally.
I encourage you to join me early every week on TwinsGeek and every Friday on wolvesgeek.com. Next week we’ll look at the hottest tactical decision facing Flip Saunders in this young season – Wally or Trenton? It’s a dilemma many teams would like to have.
Wednesday, April 14, 2004
Wow
It is 1:12 a.m. Your correspondent has been watching the Lakers and Blazers play an epic game containing all of the elements that led me to wish beyond hope that the Wolves could avoid having the Lake Show in their "pod."
Sacramento has lost. The Lakers bench and, for that matter, the Blazers crowd react visibly.
Time winds down in regulation, Blazers up by three. Kobe throws a three point shot in that any trick-shot artist or Stanford Cardinal would be proud of.
Time winds down in the first overtime, game tied, and Shaq fouls Theo Ratliff before the ball is inbounded. Automatic free throws, right? Well, that is the rule -- but not if you're a Laker. Let's just take no time off the clock and "reinbound."
Hunh?
Time winds down in the second overtime, Blazers up by two. Derek Fisher throws up a prayer that bounds away, but... but... are you serious? A loose ball foul?
Timeout. Time in. Inbounded. Kobe. Ball game. As the Lakers announcer said (with Mychal Thompson at his side inexplicably quiet):
"You have GOT to be kidding me."
Better than that, the Blazers' radio broadcast, which I was privileged to be listening to courtesy of Sirius satellite radio said nothing. Nothing. For eight, I counted eight seconds. After an absolutely scintillating game, they come back after eight seconds and say:
"He made it. Unbelievable."
So, why am I so amped? Because the Wolves went out and kicked some backside and this year, as opposed to last, it paid off. Let's look at the Wolves' side of the bracket:
Wolves v. Denver
Sacramento v. Dallas
And the other?
Lakers v. Houston
San Antonio v. Memphis
Wolves against their own bracket? 8-4... Okay, they're 10-6 against the other, but I will be drinking it in when the Lakers and Spurs face each other in the the second round and the Wolves have home court against quite possible the poorest road team amongst Western Conference foes -- Sacramento.
I know. Let's not get past ourselves here. But the Wolves have a path to the Western Conference finals and thanks to Kobe, it's paved in purple... not gold.
I still don't like the guy.
It is 1:12 a.m. Your correspondent has been watching the Lakers and Blazers play an epic game containing all of the elements that led me to wish beyond hope that the Wolves could avoid having the Lake Show in their "pod."
Sacramento has lost. The Lakers bench and, for that matter, the Blazers crowd react visibly.
Time winds down in regulation, Blazers up by three. Kobe throws a three point shot in that any trick-shot artist or Stanford Cardinal would be proud of.
Time winds down in the first overtime, game tied, and Shaq fouls Theo Ratliff before the ball is inbounded. Automatic free throws, right? Well, that is the rule -- but not if you're a Laker. Let's just take no time off the clock and "reinbound."
Hunh?
Time winds down in the second overtime, Blazers up by two. Derek Fisher throws up a prayer that bounds away, but... but... are you serious? A loose ball foul?
Timeout. Time in. Inbounded. Kobe. Ball game. As the Lakers announcer said (with Mychal Thompson at his side inexplicably quiet):
"You have GOT to be kidding me."
Better than that, the Blazers' radio broadcast, which I was privileged to be listening to courtesy of Sirius satellite radio said nothing. Nothing. For eight, I counted eight seconds. After an absolutely scintillating game, they come back after eight seconds and say:
"He made it. Unbelievable."
So, why am I so amped? Because the Wolves went out and kicked some backside and this year, as opposed to last, it paid off. Let's look at the Wolves' side of the bracket:
Wolves v. Denver
Sacramento v. Dallas
And the other?
Lakers v. Houston
San Antonio v. Memphis
Wolves against their own bracket? 8-4... Okay, they're 10-6 against the other, but I will be drinking it in when the Lakers and Spurs face each other in the the second round and the Wolves have home court against quite possible the poorest road team amongst Western Conference foes -- Sacramento.
I know. Let's not get past ourselves here. But the Wolves have a path to the Western Conference finals and thanks to Kobe, it's paved in purple... not gold.
I still don't like the guy.
Tuesday, April 13, 2004
Who Controls Their Own Destiny?
That's right, Wolves' fans, the answer might surprise you.
First, a quick note from "the more things change, the more they stay the same" department.
Last year, on the final day of the season -- also a Wednesday evening -- the Wolves had to defeat Hubie Brown's Grizzlies in Memphis to clinch home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. They did so, but things fell out in other games not as expected and, suddenly, rather than heading to Dallas as the #6 seed, the Wolves seemingly got a worse draw having to host the Lakers. Why? Because they beat the Grizz.
This year? If the Wolves win tomorrow, they will, in all likelihood defeat the Denver Nuggets in the first-round of the playoffs. Who will await? The Lakers. Not for certain, at least not mathematically, but anyone who knows basketball knows that the Kings will probably defeat the Warriors and, in the playoffs, the Lakers have the edge on the Mavs in Round One.
So, what am I saying?
Two things. First, the only team who truly controls their own destiny is the Memphis Grizzlies, and they are proving as wily as their head coach. It is clear, having watched the first half of tonight's encounter against the Mavericks, that the Grizzlies want to lose this game. You see, the Grizz want nothing to do with the likely #4 seed Los Angeles, and who can blame them? So, you lose to Dallas and claim #6, who will be either San Antonio or Minnesota. Now, I don't want to play down the way the Wolves had played this season, but I would venture to guess that Hubie Brown would rather face the Wolves than Spurs. The matchups are better, the intangibles (i.e., defending champs vs. no playoff series wins) are better, and the Spurs are simply destroying people since March 15 or so.
So, Memphis loses tonight (Tuesday), wins Wednesday at home against the Wolves, and they have the matchup they want. Simple as that.
But wait a minute, isn't that also the matchup the Wolves want?
Hear me out. If the Wolves lose, and assuming (maybe poorly) that the Kings do in fact beat the Warriors in Oakland, here's the Wolves' path to the Western Conference Finals:
Home vs. Memphis, Home vs. either Sacramento or Houston
Hmm... Compare that to:
Home vs. Denver, Home vs. either Los Angeles or Dallas
I'm sorry, folks. I'll take the former, even if it means a possible Western Conference Finals matchup with the Spurs holding home court.
I know, I know. Nay, nay, nay. The Grizzlies will have just beat the Wolves and that does matter psychologically. I know also that the Wolves will have to beat either the Spurs or Lakers to get through it, and doing so at home does provide an advantage.
But, let's look at this logically. Who amongst the "Big Four" is truly struggling right now? Sacramento. Who amongst the Big Four does Minnesota absolutely know how to beat? Sacramento. They beat them twice in Arco and crushed them at Target in February employing a simple philosophy of defense first. I don't care where you play San Antonio or Los Angeles, the Timberwolves WILL be the Vegas underdog. Do you REALLY want to have to possibly play them both? Does home-court matter that much, especially when because the NBA seeds only hold for one round, the Wolves would only cede home-court in the Conference Finals, which is really a long, long way from where we are right now?
Alright, cynicism aside, having the Wolves finish the season winning nine in a row and clinching home-court through the Western Conference playoffs is more than we ever could have imagined coming in. Congrats boys, and if you go out there and beat Memphis to top off this run and incredibly hold off the Spurs, I absolutely commend you.
It just strikes me as dumb luck for the second year in a row for a franchise that luck has never shined upon. Go Warriors.
That's right, Wolves' fans, the answer might surprise you.
First, a quick note from "the more things change, the more they stay the same" department.
Last year, on the final day of the season -- also a Wednesday evening -- the Wolves had to defeat Hubie Brown's Grizzlies in Memphis to clinch home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. They did so, but things fell out in other games not as expected and, suddenly, rather than heading to Dallas as the #6 seed, the Wolves seemingly got a worse draw having to host the Lakers. Why? Because they beat the Grizz.
This year? If the Wolves win tomorrow, they will, in all likelihood defeat the Denver Nuggets in the first-round of the playoffs. Who will await? The Lakers. Not for certain, at least not mathematically, but anyone who knows basketball knows that the Kings will probably defeat the Warriors and, in the playoffs, the Lakers have the edge on the Mavs in Round One.
So, what am I saying?
Two things. First, the only team who truly controls their own destiny is the Memphis Grizzlies, and they are proving as wily as their head coach. It is clear, having watched the first half of tonight's encounter against the Mavericks, that the Grizzlies want to lose this game. You see, the Grizz want nothing to do with the likely #4 seed Los Angeles, and who can blame them? So, you lose to Dallas and claim #6, who will be either San Antonio or Minnesota. Now, I don't want to play down the way the Wolves had played this season, but I would venture to guess that Hubie Brown would rather face the Wolves than Spurs. The matchups are better, the intangibles (i.e., defending champs vs. no playoff series wins) are better, and the Spurs are simply destroying people since March 15 or so.
So, Memphis loses tonight (Tuesday), wins Wednesday at home against the Wolves, and they have the matchup they want. Simple as that.
But wait a minute, isn't that also the matchup the Wolves want?
Hear me out. If the Wolves lose, and assuming (maybe poorly) that the Kings do in fact beat the Warriors in Oakland, here's the Wolves' path to the Western Conference Finals:
Home vs. Memphis, Home vs. either Sacramento or Houston
Hmm... Compare that to:
Home vs. Denver, Home vs. either Los Angeles or Dallas
I'm sorry, folks. I'll take the former, even if it means a possible Western Conference Finals matchup with the Spurs holding home court.
I know, I know. Nay, nay, nay. The Grizzlies will have just beat the Wolves and that does matter psychologically. I know also that the Wolves will have to beat either the Spurs or Lakers to get through it, and doing so at home does provide an advantage.
But, let's look at this logically. Who amongst the "Big Four" is truly struggling right now? Sacramento. Who amongst the Big Four does Minnesota absolutely know how to beat? Sacramento. They beat them twice in Arco and crushed them at Target in February employing a simple philosophy of defense first. I don't care where you play San Antonio or Los Angeles, the Timberwolves WILL be the Vegas underdog. Do you REALLY want to have to possibly play them both? Does home-court matter that much, especially when because the NBA seeds only hold for one round, the Wolves would only cede home-court in the Conference Finals, which is really a long, long way from where we are right now?
Alright, cynicism aside, having the Wolves finish the season winning nine in a row and clinching home-court through the Western Conference playoffs is more than we ever could have imagined coming in. Congrats boys, and if you go out there and beat Memphis to top off this run and incredibly hold off the Spurs, I absolutely commend you.
It just strikes me as dumb luck for the second year in a row for a franchise that luck has never shined upon. Go Warriors.
Friday, April 09, 2004
A Little Down
Once upon a time WolvesGeek and TwinsGeek were paired at the hip. I'll never pretend to have had the crowd that John drew, but the seasons are, for the most part, mutually exclusive so I like to think we had a whole lot of crossover fans and shared readership.
John is all grown up. TwinsGeek has gone mainstream. Not in content, of course, but in format. No more referring pages, no more teasers.
I'm on my own... and, frankly, it scares me. Not because I think I can't draw a crowd. I know I can't. The Wolves can, however, and that would be enough. It scares me because I'm busy and I can't write this thing every day.
You see, if the Godfather of Geeks taught me anything, anything at all, it's that you need a lil' sumthin-sumthin every day to build a readership. Sorry, folks, with 100,000 frequent flier miles a year, that ain't happenin'.
So, I'll chime in when I can and here's what I have to say. It's real simple.
I don't care if the Wolves finish first, I don't care if they finish fourth. Okay -- I'm lying a little bit -- finishing first would be unbelievable, but the NBA, unlike the NHL, runs a pod system in the playoffs. What that means is seeds 1,4,5, and 8 are in one half of the bracket and 2,3,6,7 are in the other.
So what do we want to see? We want to see Sacramento in our pod and the Lakers and Spurs in the other. Period.
Right now? We're "podded" up with the Lakers. Bad news.
So, how do we get what we want? Simple. The Wolves, Lakers and Spurs win out (this column was written with the Warriors and Wolves tied at 40 in the 2nd). Okay, I'm not really rooting for the Spurs to win out -- I'd like to see the Blazers beat 'em in Portland and give the Wolves a breather -- but if that happens, we've got this: 1) Wolves, 2) Lakers, 3) Spurs, 4) Kings.
Perfect. Perfect, perfect, perfect. How wonderful will it be to watch the Wolves open at home to the Kings in round two while the Lakers and Spurs may have to do battle? To be honest, the Wolves would have just as good of a chance to face the five seed, whether Memphis or Dallas, than the sputtering Kings (who also trail Phoenix at the moment).
So that's what you root for. Go Wolves, Go Lakers... Oh, and you root for a little luck -- like Pau Gasol being out for the rest of the regular season. Right where we want him, sitting with me on the couch.
There is, after all, a space empty now. A space that was always reserved for John. I wish him all the best on his new couch -- and I hope Mauer, Hunter, and Lecroy get off it as soon as possible.
Once upon a time WolvesGeek and TwinsGeek were paired at the hip. I'll never pretend to have had the crowd that John drew, but the seasons are, for the most part, mutually exclusive so I like to think we had a whole lot of crossover fans and shared readership.
John is all grown up. TwinsGeek has gone mainstream. Not in content, of course, but in format. No more referring pages, no more teasers.
I'm on my own... and, frankly, it scares me. Not because I think I can't draw a crowd. I know I can't. The Wolves can, however, and that would be enough. It scares me because I'm busy and I can't write this thing every day.
You see, if the Godfather of Geeks taught me anything, anything at all, it's that you need a lil' sumthin-sumthin every day to build a readership. Sorry, folks, with 100,000 frequent flier miles a year, that ain't happenin'.
So, I'll chime in when I can and here's what I have to say. It's real simple.
I don't care if the Wolves finish first, I don't care if they finish fourth. Okay -- I'm lying a little bit -- finishing first would be unbelievable, but the NBA, unlike the NHL, runs a pod system in the playoffs. What that means is seeds 1,4,5, and 8 are in one half of the bracket and 2,3,6,7 are in the other.
So what do we want to see? We want to see Sacramento in our pod and the Lakers and Spurs in the other. Period.
Right now? We're "podded" up with the Lakers. Bad news.
So, how do we get what we want? Simple. The Wolves, Lakers and Spurs win out (this column was written with the Warriors and Wolves tied at 40 in the 2nd). Okay, I'm not really rooting for the Spurs to win out -- I'd like to see the Blazers beat 'em in Portland and give the Wolves a breather -- but if that happens, we've got this: 1) Wolves, 2) Lakers, 3) Spurs, 4) Kings.
Perfect. Perfect, perfect, perfect. How wonderful will it be to watch the Wolves open at home to the Kings in round two while the Lakers and Spurs may have to do battle? To be honest, the Wolves would have just as good of a chance to face the five seed, whether Memphis or Dallas, than the sputtering Kings (who also trail Phoenix at the moment).
So that's what you root for. Go Wolves, Go Lakers... Oh, and you root for a little luck -- like Pau Gasol being out for the rest of the regular season. Right where we want him, sitting with me on the couch.
There is, after all, a space empty now. A space that was always reserved for John. I wish him all the best on his new couch -- and I hope Mauer, Hunter, and Lecroy get off it as soon as possible.
